GRAPE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE 2006 HARVEST

Many wine experts believe the 2006 grape harvest will be lighter than the previous year for various reasons. Due to heavy rains, many of the early blooming chardonnay and pinot noir grapes lost buds while millions of other wine grapes – such as red varietals - were just coming out of hibernation and will probably fare better. Furthermore, history shows that after a record-breaking crop, a short crop is likely to come the following year, such as the 1997 and 1998 harvests that resulted from El Nino weather.

If the 2006 harvest does turn out smaller than grape demand will go up along with prices and retail business. Already California is enjoying growing success despite the recent gluts with a 13% increase in super premium and ultra premium wine. However, it is interesting to consider how much price drives consumer sales. If prices go up, than perhaps the less-than-seasoned wine drinker and/or 20-somethings will turn back to cheaper spirits and beer, especially the ever-growing import and craft brand segment.