FIRST PREDICTIONS FOR 2006 WINE HARVEST

California agricultural officials estimate that the size of the 2006 winegrape crop will fall somewhere around 3.2 million tons, down 16% from last’s years huge harvest. Although the estimate is subject to change, it suggests that this year’s outcome may be “normal” since it comes close to the ten-year average of 6.6 million tons.

The 2006 crop still comes in third after 2005 and 2000 as the largest yields in California history. Overall, Cabernet and Merlot are both expected to have typical yields while Chardonnay and Pinot Noir are lower than last year.

D.A. Davidson & Co. Research stated: “It's important to note that the huge crop of 2005 was driven by yield-per-acre rather than an increase in total acreage. California winegrape acres grew for 20 years, peaking in 2002. Since then, the number of planted acres has been flat to down.”

Wineries will have to start selling off some bulk wine to make room for the 2006 vintage. Many wineries and growers had hoped for an even smaller harvest this year so they would have time to sell off the huge 2005 vintage. However, they’ll have to wait until at least 2007 to achieve stability in the bulk wine sector.