Friday, December 01, 2006

DIAGEO EXPECTS A MERRY CHRISTMAS INDEED

Diageo is expected to do well over the holiday season in the U.S. with premiumization continuing to run strong. UBS analyst Melissa Earlam reports that despite some moderation of market growth in October, “we would be reluctant to extrapolate this as a slowdown given similar patterns of a weak October followed by a strong November in previous years.”

All of Diageo’s premium spirits brands in the U.S. (Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Jose Cuervo, Don Julio, Captain Morgan and Baileys) are growing “very strongly” along with the rest of the premium sector (volume up 5%), and super-premium sector (up 11%).

Declines continue, however, in Diageo’s value brand portfolio (Popov vodka and 7 Crown) as with the rest of the sub-premium spirits market (down 0.6% in volume.)

Crown Royal’s volumes are still feeling the heat after experiencing negative impacts from the hurricanes last year. While volume growth has returned to 5-6%, sharp volume recovery is unlikely to take place until construction is restored in the areas hit by hurricanes.