Wednesday, January 03, 2007

DON’T GIVE UP ON GIN

Many in the industry, including WSD, are predicting an eventual resurgence in the gin category. Let’s take a look at the evidence.

As you know, spirits is a growing category helped by younger, image-conscious consumers who want to order name-brand drinks. Designer cocktails are often carried like badges in restaurants and bars (comparable to designer clothing) – and lucky for gin, the category has many “designer” brands to offer. As a result, bartenders and mixologists are using more gin in cocktail recipes.

Thanks to the trading-up phenomenon in recent years, U.S. consumers are taking more of an interest in gin. Boutique gin brands are on the rise, along with popular premium and super-premium brands such as Bombay Sapphire, Seagram’s, and Tanqueray.

The trend towards premiumization will likely remain a growth driver for the gin category, particularly in the U.S., and is perhaps the main component in the gin category’s modest reversal.

According to Impact Databank, gin was down 4.5% or 2.7 million nine-liter cases last year. The decline is largely attributed, however, to the failings of a small brand from the Philippines, which sank 7% in volume.

The third-largest selling gin by volume in the U.S., Bombay (owned by Bacardi), was the only top-10 gin brand to post growth last year.

Pernod-owned Seagram’s, the largest-selling gin brand, is growing at about 5% in 2006 despite failing to generate growth in recent years.

Tanqueray (Diageo), on the other hand, remained flat last year, but is currently gaining market share as it remains the number-two gin brand in the U.S. Gordon and Beefeater follow as the fourth and fifth most popular gin brands in the U.S. by volume.

Clearly, gin isn’t going to replace vodka or rum as the most popular spirit, but it’s in the position for modest overall growth. Who does the category have to thank? Cocktail trends and premiumization.