Monday, February 05, 2007

COULD INCREASED CONSUMPTION HURT U.S. VINTNERS?

We’ve heard it time and time again, but it’s worth repeating: the U.S. wine industry is going to be even bigger in the coming years. So big, in fact, that the United States is expected to overtake France in the next five years as the world's largest wine market, according to an annual study published last week by VinExpo.

By 2010, global wine consumption is expected to grow 5% while the market value would increase 9% to $117 billion from $107 billion in 2005.

The study predicts that U.S. consumption of table wine will grow to 27.3 million hectoliters in 2010 from 23 million in 2005, exceeding French consumption, which is set to fall to 24.9 million hl from 27.4 million hl.

Trading up will continue to be a factor in 2010 as wine that costs over $5 is expected to have the fastest growth rate in the U.S.. In value terms, the study projects that the still wine market in the U.S. will be worth $22.8 billion by 2010, up from $19.2 billion in 2005.

Italy will remain the second largest market by volume with consumption in 2010 of around 27.2 million hl, the study by London-based consultants International Wine and Spirit Record found.

So why should we care? For one thing, the U.S. will garner more respect and attention on an international front as wine-drinking becomes a larger part of everyday life at home.

The bad news? The U.S. will play like a giant marketing audience for foreign wines, resulting in an even larger flood of imports, and followed by increased share. It’s good news for the larger players that own brands in the U.S. and elsewhere. However, U.S-based growers and winemakers will have their work cut out for them in fending off imports as consumption rises and consumers look to “exotic” brands. Advertising and innovation will be key in establishing U.S. brands at home, and hopefully by then, U.S. winemakers will have made deeper inroads internationally (China anyone?). Case in point? Harness that growth for your own gain.

WHAT ABOUT SPIRITS? The study also looked at trends in the spirits industry, forecasting the global spirits market would be worth $180.7 billion in 2010 compared with $170 billion in 2005.

By then, other spirits will have taken center stage (there’s hope yet gin!). Tequila, cognac and rum are set to replace vodka as the fastest growing spirits in 2010.