Friday, February 16, 2007

LOW END WINE IMPROVES IN JANUARY

Domestic wine sales topped 10.4% in January, according to IRI supermarket scanner data for the 4-week period ending January 2007, as reported by Merrill Lynch’s Christine Farkas. January sales improved from December’s growth of only 8%, and trumped the 6.6% increase in January 2006.

Specifically, table wine sales rose 10.7%, improving from 8.6% in Dec. Domestic dollar sales climbed by 11.4%, driven by volume growth of 6.8% and price/mix growth of 4.3%. Import dollar sales increased by 8.7%, including 0.5% price/mix gains and strong 8.2% volume growth.

Altogether table wine volumes rose 7.1%, above Dec.'s growth of only 4.7%, and once again lapped a -2.5% decline in Jan 2006. All price categories above the $2.99 per bottle range experience volume gains.

Good news for the big wine companies (I’m talking to you Constellation.) Low end wine volumes improved in January in the U.S. while high end wines remained strong. Category price/mix was up 3.4% in January to $5.39/btl, but represented the slowest growth in the last thirteen 4-wk periods (peaking at 9.4% in Jan 2006). Price/mix for low end brands saw more moderate declines, with the $3-$5.50 per bottle segment showing particularly good trends. Pricing for wines <$5.50/btl was essentially flat, while mid-tier brand pricing rose by 2% and super-premium pricing was flat to slightly up.

Volumes of wines priced >$15 per bottle rose by 22.8% in January, along with a 17% gain in the $12-$15 segment and a 10.6% rise in the $9-$12 segment. Volumes in the $5.50-$9 segment grew by 12.2%, and volumes in the $3-$5.49 and <$3 segments grew by 6.5%and 0.3% respectively.

The major players (Gallo, Constellation and The Wine Group) are still trailing industry gains with a reported dollar sales growth of 8.4%, 4.5% and 5.2% respectively, as compared to overall table wine gains of 10.7%. Gallo and STZ enjoyed above average wine price/mix growth of 3.5% and 6.5% respectively, while the Wine Group saw its price/mix fall by 2%. Collectively, the three boys suffered volume and dollar share declines while imports gained volume share in January, driven by Australia.