Thursday, May 17, 2007

SCOTCH DUE FOR A COMEBACK

We’ve been hearing a lot about Scotch lately as companies like Beam Global and Pernod look to rebuff their brand offerings. In recent years, the popularity of white spirits has outshone their darker colored companions as the cocktail trend becomes more prevalent in the U.S. As Nielsen reports, sales of Scotch were down 0.2% in the 52 weeks to January 13. Countries like China and India have been responsible for Scotch growth in recent years but perhaps that trend will soon resurface in the U.S.

“There is evidence that the 25-29 year olds have grown up quicker than previous generations as a result of 9/11, terrorist threats and two wars. As a result they have adopted so-called ‘mature products,’ such as premium scotch whiskey, earlier than usual,” said Ivan Menezes, president of Diageo North America, at the company’s annual investors conference last month.

If this is true, and millennials are choosing Scotch, than the category has a bright future indeed.

Pernod said yesterday it is looking to invest $54 million on a global Ballantine’s promotion, entitled “Leave an Impression,” in effort to replace Diageo’s J&B as the world’s second-largest Scotch brand. Ballantine’s is currently the world’s third largest Scotch whiskey brand by volume and second by value.

Beam Global has also expressed interest in re-strengthening its presence in the Scotch category – specifically through Teacher’s which is already doing quite well in India.

And of course there is the recent acquisition of Whyte & Mackay by India’s United Breweries, led by Vijay Mallya. W&M is the fourth largest Scotch producer behind Diageo, Pernod Ricard and William Grant.

According to FT, Vijay is "seriously considering" listing his international spirits business on the London Stock Exchange following the acquisition. Apparently, he plans on make more purchases in the Scotch industry and believes a listing would make it easier to raise capital.

"In the last few years, there have been concerns about whether vodka or other white spirits were actually eating into the Scotch whisky market, but that trend seems to have started fading away and the demand for Scotch whisky - particularly in the emerging economies - is coming back stronger than ever," Vijay was quoted saying in the FT.

Last year was a reportedly record year for Scotch whisky exports and distillers are seeing this as an opportunity to reposition Scotch. The winner of the race and its eventual outcome, of course, remains to be seen.