SPIRITS VOLUME DOWN -0.9% IN SEPTEMBER
Based on NABCA data, Melissa Earlam of UBS reports that volumes declined by -0.9% in September despite relatively unchallenging year-on-year (yoy) comps of 3.3% in Sept. 2006. Volumes were up 4.9% in August from the previous year, while year-to-date case sales rose 3.2%, slightly below the 3.9% reported growth for the same period last year.
DIAGEO. Diageo’s overall volumes were flat in the year ending September, but gained share in Scotch, Canadian whiskey, gin, cordials and cocktails. The company lost a bit of share in vodka, (2.5% vs. category 2.7%) and lost share in rum (-0.7% vs. category -0.1%) and tequila (-5% vs. category 1.6%).
PERNOD. Melissa describes Pernod’s performance in Sept. as “weak” at -4.9%, despite growing 2.1% YTD. The French company gained share in Scotch and rum, but lost share in cordials and significantly in vodka (-6.4% vs category 2.7%), gin (-6.2% vs category -3%) and brandy/Cognac (-33.3% vs category -3.3%). As you’ll recall, Pernod raised US prices across its portfolio at the start of August.
B-F, CAMPARI AND REMY. B-F lost share after seeing a -6% volume decline in Sept and -1.1% slide YTD. Campari also lost share with a volume loss of -2.3%. Remy, meanwhile, gained 1% share in September.
“We have Buy ratings on Diageo, Pernod and Brown-Forman. Despite a weak month, we remain upbeat about the US spirits market with volume growth expected at 2-3% and price/mix of 2-3%, with recent comments from Diageo management highlighting the economic resilience of premiumization,” said Melissa.
DIAGEO. Diageo’s overall volumes were flat in the year ending September, but gained share in Scotch, Canadian whiskey, gin, cordials and cocktails. The company lost a bit of share in vodka, (2.5% vs. category 2.7%) and lost share in rum (-0.7% vs. category -0.1%) and tequila (-5% vs. category 1.6%).
PERNOD. Melissa describes Pernod’s performance in Sept. as “weak” at -4.9%, despite growing 2.1% YTD. The French company gained share in Scotch and rum, but lost share in cordials and significantly in vodka (-6.4% vs category 2.7%), gin (-6.2% vs category -3%) and brandy/Cognac (-33.3% vs category -3.3%). As you’ll recall, Pernod raised US prices across its portfolio at the start of August.
B-F, CAMPARI AND REMY. B-F lost share after seeing a -6% volume decline in Sept and -1.1% slide YTD. Campari also lost share with a volume loss of -2.3%. Remy, meanwhile, gained 1% share in September.
“We have Buy ratings on Diageo, Pernod and Brown-Forman. Despite a weak month, we remain upbeat about the US spirits market with volume growth expected at 2-3% and price/mix of 2-3%, with recent comments from Diageo management highlighting the economic resilience of premiumization,” said Melissa.
posted at 1:23 PM
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