Thursday, May 01, 2008

Growth of Ultra-Premium Spirits Slow

Higher priced spirits showed signs of slowing in the four weeks to March 8, 2008, according to Nielsen U.S. food, drug and liquor scan data. The total spirits category grew 2.6% in value to almost $500 million and 1.6% in volume to 3.6 million cases. Excluding prepared cocktails, the industry gained 2.7% in sales and 1.7% in volume.

Value priced spirits gained 1.2% in dollar sales in the four weeks to March and lost -0.3 share points. Volume was up 0.8% and also lost -0.3 share points.

Mid priced spirits increased 2% in value and 2% in volume. It lost -0.2 share points in dollar sales and gained 0.1 volume share.

Premium spirits grew 3.3% in dollar sales and 2.9% in volume. As far as share goes, premiums gained 0.2 points in value and volume.

Ultra-premium spirits continued to be the fastest growing category in terms of value although growth is slowing. Ultra-premiums gained 5.7% in dollar sales and 1.7% in volume. The category also gained 0.4 dollar share points but volume was flat in the four weeks to March 8.

One of the hottest topics in the spirits industry right now is whether trading up will slow or evaporate in the ensuing recession. Will consumers start trading down to lower-priced brands and save the extra money for gas? Data seems to support this theory although ultra-premium and premium brands are still growing. In the four weeks to March 8, spirits growth showed signs of slowing for all price categories excluding value brands.

In the 52 weeks to March 8, value brands gained only 0.8% in dollar sales, but rose 2.3% in the 13 week period and 1.2% in the four week period. This suggests that value brands are starting to growth at a faster rate.

Every other category, however, is showing signs of a slowdown. Mid-priced brands increased 4% in the year to March, but gained only 3.5% in the 13 weeks and 2% in the four weeks. Premium brands went from gaining 5.3% in the 52 weeks, to 5.1% in the 13 weeks and 3.3% for the month.

Ultra-premiums saw the biggest dip in dollar sales. In the 52 week period, they grew 10.9%. In the 13 week period, ultra-premiums grew 8.6% and in the four weeks to March they grew 5.7%.

In terms of volume, ultra-premiums saw the biggest dip. In the 52 weeks, ultra-premium grew 7.8%, but grew only 1.7% in the four weeks to March. Premiums went from 4.5% for the year to 2.9% for the month. Mid-priced spirits increased 3.3% in volume for the year, but grew only 2% in the four week period. Lastly, value brands went from gaining only 0.2% in the 52 weeks to March 8, to growing 0.8% in the four week period.

So, with all that said, let’s take a look at the actual spirits themselves. The tequila category continues to be on fire. In the four week period, tequila grew 11.6% in dollar sales and gained 0.5 share points. In terms of volume, tequila was up 7.2% and gained 0.2 points.

Vodka, meanwhile, was the second fastest growing spirits category in March. Dollar sales of vodka grew 5.2% in the four weeks to March 8, while volume climbed 5%. Dollar share grew 0.7 points and volume share was up 1.1 share points. Could it be that premium and ultra-premium vodkas are losing their momentum?

Dollar sales of whiskey grew 2.6% in value but share was flat. Irish whiskey continues to show the most growth in the whiskey category, up 23.1%, while Scotch was down -0.6%. Whiskey grew 0.3% in volume and lost 0.3 share points. In volume, Irish whiskey grew 23.2%, while Scotch declined -4.4%.

Gin grew 1.7% in dollar value, while share was flat. Volume of gin declined -1.1% and lost -0.2 volume share points.

Lastly, rum value grew 3.1% and gained 0.1 share points. Volume of rum increased 2.4% and also gained 0.1 points.


Until Monday, Megan

“Be sincere; be brief; be seated.”
-Franklin D. Roosevelt

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