Thursday, November 06, 2008

Foster’s Mystery Investor Revealed

Weeks ago Deutsche Bank announced it had purchased a 5% stake in Foster’s Group on the behalf of a mysterious company, which was revealed this week to be Molson Coors. The exchange was a “cash-settled total return swap.” Deutsche reportedly began stockpiling Foster's shares as long ago as May, only declaring its ownership of a 5.26% stake in Foster's on September 25.

Apparently even Foster’s didn’t know Molson was the interested party. The company issued a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange declaring it "has not been informed of the precise extent of Molson Coors' interest in the company nor their intentions with respect to that interest.” Recall that Foster's has already appointed Merrill Lynch to help the company defend against potential acquirers.

It appears that Molson Coors likely has an interest in acquiring at least the beer side of the company, which could leave the wine biz up for grabs. Until yesterday, Molson was just one of the many brewers speculated to have interest in Fortune, along with InBev, Suntory, Heinken and SABMiller. However, the company would not specify its reasons for the $616 million stake in yesterday’s conference call.

"This is an interesting market we have been studying for some time and we view this as an attractive opportunity," Molson ceo Peter Swinburn said. However, he also said it was “not on our strategic game plan at the moment” to enter the wine and spirits business, which means it’s likely Molson will seek to break up the company.

Analysts predict Molson is unlikely to make another move until Foster’s has completed the strategic review of its wine division in February.

"We believe that, having gotten the MillerCoors merger under way, management of Molson Coors is now in the process of bulking up via the M&A route," Dow Jones Newswires quoted Credit Suisse analyst Carlos Laboy.

"Foster's makes perfect sense for them on many levels and we would not be spooked by the prospect of a Foster's transaction," Carlos continued.

PATRÓN JOINS DISCUS

The Distilled Spirits Council announced today that Patrón Spirits Co. is joining the industry group effective January 1, 2009.

“We welcome the Patrón Spirits Company, one of the fastest growing and most respected liquor producers, into the Distilled Spirits Council,” said Council ceo Peter Cressy. “This is a critical moment for the industry and we look forward to pursuing the many challenges we face with the strong support of Patrón and its management team. They have proven their mettle in the marketplace and now they will bring that expertise onto our board.”

“Patrón is very pleased to join the Distilled Spirits Council,” Patrón COO John McDonnell said. “No other organization offers the scope of expertise and presence on the ground in Washington and in state capitals across the nation. In these tough economic times, we need everyone working together.”

DISCUS represents over 85% of all premium distilled spirits brands sold in the U.S.

HISPANICS PREFER BEER TO WINE OR SPIRITS

A study published in Health Day News reveals Hispanics in the U.S. prefer beer to wine and spirits, which they consider too risky. Wine in particular was closely associated with binge drinking among Cuban American and South/Central American women as compared to beer. In general, many Hispanics consider beer safer or less harmful than wine or spirits.

Researchers surveyed 5,224 adults in Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston and Los Angeles about their drinking habits. They found that beer was the preferred beverage of all Hispanics, regardless if they were of Mexican-American, Puerto Rican, Cuban American or South/Central American heritage. Of male Hispanic beer drinkers, the beverage constituted 52% to 72% of their total alcohol consumption. Among Hispanic women who drank beer, it made up 32% to 64% of their total consumption.

We suppose wine and spirits marketers have their work cut out for them. Wine in particular should focus ad dollars on reaching out to the Hispanic community and perhaps relaying the health benefits of wine. Continuing to educate the public about wine and making it more approachable could also help increase consumption in the Hispanic demographic.

A-B SAYS BEER IS GROWING FASTER THAN WINE AND SPIRITS

In Anheuser-Busch’s last conference call as an independent company, cfo Randy Baker said beer grew at a faster rate in the third quarter as compared to wine and spirits, noting “it’s the first time in a long time.”

“In IRI supermarket data in the third quarter beer’s growth exceeded both liquor and wine which is the first time in a long time it’s done that. Wine has slowed in supermarket channels significantly. In other industry data we are seeing liquor slow a bit in shipments and overall yes, you are seeing beer relative to wine and spirits improve for the year in terms of shipments. Wine will probably exceed beer in the shipment basis but in the supermarket channels beer is outperforming wine and underperforming liquor. Overall, relatively strong.”


FIRM BUYS $425M STAKE IN WHOLE FOODS

Whole Foods has had a rather rocky year. For one, the FTC is once again investigating its merger with Wild Oats. Two, the economic crisis is taking a toll on the grocer which was once though invincible against market declines. In fact, it recently posted one of its worst quarters ever, as same store sales slowed to 0.4% in the fourth quarter and profit dropped –96%. In the past year, Whole Foods’ stock has sunk about -75%.

However, the organic retailer earned a nice cash infusion yesterday when LA-based private equity firm Leonard Green & Partners bought a $425 million stake in Whole Foods. The grocer’s shares shot up 19% in after-hours trading. Leonard Green owns stakes in Neiman Marcus and Sports Authority, and entirely owns The Container Store. Two of Green's principals will take seats on the Whole Foods board.

"We don't know what's going to happen with the economy, so we wanted to have some dry powder, just some capital to see us through hard times," said Whole Foods ceo John Mackey in a phone interview with the Austin Statesman. "If times get worse, we don't want to run out of money. So we're preparing."

WSD BRIEFS:

PERNOD’S NEW ZEALAND WINERIES Stoneleigh and Brancott celebrate the year’s new harvest with the release of their new 2008 Sauvignon Blanc vintages.

COSTCO’S TOTAL SALES ROSE 2% while same store sales fell 1% in October.

STAY TUNED for our coverage of Diageo’s Investor Conference...


“I can't give you a sure-fire formula for success, but I can give you a formula for failure: try to please everybody all the time.”

Herbert Bayard Swope

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BEER SUMMIT 2009 - The Four Seasons, Austin, Texas - Join us for great speakers, intelligent discourse, good food, and of course great beer at the next Beer Summit on March 1 - 2, 2009. Click here: http://tinyurl.com/beersummit

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